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Trouble Ahead? This Vegas Statistic Suggests an Economic Storm Is Brewing

September 3, 2018


Trouble Ahead? This Vegas Statistic Suggests an Economic Storm Is Brewing

Let’s treat this like a secret message. It’s Labor Day. We shouldn’t be working… and you shouldn’t be checking your email.

But we came across a fascinating statistic while we were researching a fast-moving investment opportunity that we’ll soon send to Manward Letter subscribers.

You can read into it what you want.

To us it spells opportunity… fear… and, if you stick with us, beauty.

It shows – at least according to this data point – that we’re on path to the same sort of economic problem we saw in the late 1990s and in 2007.

The statistic is quite simple.

To see if our hunch about a new investing opportunity was right (it was), we researched hotel room occupancy rates in Las Vegas.

If folks are truly happy with the economy, we reckoned, they’d be headed to the town that makes it fun to toss your money in the trash.

The numbers are crazy.

No Vacancy

We looked at occupancy rates from 1970 to 2017. During this period, about 84% or so of the city’s rooms were filled at any given time.

The number is remarkably steady… with two major exceptions.

In the late 1990s and in 2007, Sin City filled up like no other period in history. Those are the only two times in nearly 50 years that occupancy rates climbed over 90%.

Both times, of course, correlated with huge economic bubbles that burst in spectacular fashion.


But guess what? We’re just a busload of Labor Day tourists away from hitting that pivotal mark again.

Occupancy hit 89.1% in 2016 and 88.7% in 2017 (which was likely depressed by the shooting in October).

Again, the last time we saw rates this high was in 2006, just before peaking and then plunging a year later.

The Secret in the Numbers

Is this just a random correlation without causation?


Could occupancy rates soar higher than ever before tapering off?

That’s our take on the figures.

But here’s the great part… what we’re really celebrating today.

At the same time rooms are getting filled as fast as ever… so are the region’s jobs.

In July alone, the state gained a healthy 9,500 jobs. The news took the state’s unemployment rate to a fresh low of 4.6%.

Once again, it’s the first time we’ve seen such a grand figure since just before the 2007 economic collapse.

We could look at the numbers and say the glass is half empty and has sprung a leak.

But today’s not the day.

Instead, we put our hands together for Father Economy.

As we celebrate our nation’s workers, we beg readers to tip their hat to the system we all work and live in.

It’s a grand machine. As one cog turns, another moves with it.

Jobs beget spending. And spending begets jobs.

The machine ticks on, giving and taking as it sees fit.

It’s a beautiful thing… a thing worth celebrating.

As for the scary statistic from the top, Washington isn’t waiting around for the free market and its labor force to do what’s right. It’s planning a big move that it thinks will surely “fix” the problem.

And if it happens… get ready for trouble. Click here for details.

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